Historical Perspective

Good news/bad news courtesy of Mr. Wheat, who's analyzed every "6th year" (for the President in office) election going back to when we started popular elections for Senate in 1913). The bad news is, the Party that holds the White House always loses seats (with one partial exception). The good news is (with one exception and one partial exception), the party in control of the White House usually keeps control. The stats:

• There have been 9 sixth-year elections.
• In every one except 1998, the President’s party lost seats in Congress.
• Only in 1918 did control of the House change from the WH party to the opposition.
• Only in 1918 and 1986 did control of the Senate change from the WH party to the opposition.
• The shift in the House has ranged from an opposition gain of 81 seats (1938) to a minimum of 5 seats (1986), except for 1998 when the President’s party actually gained 5 House seats (but did not win a majority).
• The average loss of Presidential party seats in the House over all 9 sixth-year elections is 32-33.
• The shift in the Senate has ranged from an opposition gain of 13 seats (1958) to a minimum of 0 (no change in 1998).
• The average loss of Presidential party seats in the Senate is 5-6.

History or no, I find it hard to believe people are going to sit back and put our military in the hands of the MoveOn crowd in the middle of a difficult war. And Joementum has opened a 17-point lead in CT. Where does that fit into the triumphant anti-war narrative?

Townhall's urging last-minute $$ for candidates. Donate to any or all of the key races here.