The 2005 season had been the busiest recorded, and some scientists had begun to regard heightened hurricane activity as a sign that Earth's climate is out of whack, a symptom of global warming.
Then, at the start of the season, forecasters issued the alarmingly specific predictions that more danger lay ahead. The seasonal forecasts are based on ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions.
"If you think the 2006 hurricane season cannot be any worse than last year," National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said at a hurricane conference, "I'm here to tell you otherwise."
If computer models can't tell us what the weather will be next year, why should we trust them to tell us about the next 30?
