I caught a little bit of the Golden Globes last night. Mind you, I've not seen a single one of the films nominated for anything, but upon hearing the nominees, I correctly guessed every major film award. I just went by which movie portrayed unconventional morality in the best light, or if that wasn't clear, which movie was a celebrity biopic. So, for example, I knew Philip Seymour Hoffman would trump Heath Ledger for best actor, because Capote was gayer than any cowboy and it's a celebrity biopic to boot.
UPDATE: along those lines, ninme has some advice for Spielberg.
You know, "furreners" like to mock Americans for being unsophisticated, but from the way the Hollywood Foreign Press Association falls all over itself, you'd think they'd never encountered a homosexual before. And they drool over our crass celebrities, so who's unsophisticated?